Kyle Tucker’s season with the Los Angeles Dodgers has appeared nothing just like the celebrity arrival the membership anticipated after committing 4 years and $240 million to him.
Getting into Tuesday, Tucker was batting .239 with a .334 on-base share, .376 slugging share, and 9 house runs throughout 97 begins. His 97 OPS+ made him basically league-average, an alarming drop for a four-time All-Star who posted a 134 OPS+ with the Chicago Cubs in 2025.
But a brand new breakdown from MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggests Tucker’s issues could also be each much less mysterious and extra fixable than his numbers point out.
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Tucker’s Lacking Barrels Clarify the Decline
GettyNEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 25: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers rounds the bases after hitting a solo house run through the third inning of the sport towards the New York Mets at Citi Area on July 25, 2026 in New York Metropolis. (Picture by Dustin Satloff/Getty Photos)
Petriello discovered no catastrophic change. Tucker’s strikeout charge rose from 15% to 19%, his stroll charge fell from 15% to 12%, and his chase charge elevated. Every determine stays respectable by MLB requirements, however the mixture has prevented Tucker from producing his typical premium contact.
Essentially the most revealing quantity is his barrel charge. It dropped from 11% of batted balls in 2025 to roughly 7% this season. Tucker has recorded 19 barrels, roughly 13 fewer than Petriello estimated he would usually have produced by late July.
The distinction is big as a result of Tucker stays damaging when he barrels the ball. His common and slugging share on barrels this season are .684 and a couple of.316, respectively. On non-barreled contact, his 2026 outcomes are practically similar to final 12 months’s.
Petriello calculated that restoring solely 12 lacking barrels, utilizing Tucker’s regular outcomes, would carry his slash line to .253/.344/.440 with a .784 OPS—roughly 20% higher than league common.
Baseball Savant provides one other encouraging clue. Tucker’s .338 anticipated wOBA is 21 factors greater than his precise .317 mark, suggesting some underperformance. Nonetheless, his 38.9% hard-hit charge and 6.8% barrel charge affirm that diminished influence isn’t merely unhealthy luck. His protection has additionally slipped to minus-5 Outs Above Common.
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Mets Sequence Supplied a Attainable Breakthrough
GettyNEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 24: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers follows by way of on his eighth inning two run house run towards the New York Mets at Citi Area on July 24, 2026 in New York Metropolis. (Picture by Jim McIsaac/Getty Photos)
The Dodgers might have seen the correction start at Citi Area. After going two weeks and not using a barrel, Tucker produced three in two video games, together with house runs on consecutive nights. His second homer left the bat at 107.7 mph, his hardest-hit ball in additional than a 12 months.
“I really feel so much higher,” Tucker advised FOX after Saturday’s win.
There are different encouraging indicators. Tucker’s strikeout charge fell from 27% in June to only 11% to date in July, whereas his bat velocity rebounded after reaching a four-year low in Could and June. Shifting him all the way down to seventh within the order may have decreased the strain, even when two video games can’t show causation.
His home-road break up stays unresolved: an .804 OPS away from Los Angeles and .607 at Dodger Stadium. But when higher swing choices restore Tucker’s lacking barrels, his season can flip shortly. For a Dodgers crew constructed for October, these few high-value swings might matter way over 4 disappointing months.
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